Why scotland shouldnt be independent

Not surprisingly, opponents of independence - including the prime minister - don't want another vote on the issue. They argue that the referendum was, in Ms Sturgeon's own words at the time, a once-in-a-generation opportunity - which Mr Johnson has suggested should mean another one should not be held for about 40 years.

Unionists say Ms Sturgeon and her government should be focusing on tackling Covid and improving public services like health and education rather than independence.

They also say that rejoining the EU would not be a straightforward process for an independent Scotland - and could potentially lead to a hard border between Scotland and England.

And they accuse the SNP of failing to give clear answers to key questions over issues such as currency. There have been divisions in the SNP on how to secure another referendum. Ms Sturgeon has predicted that the UK government's hardline stance will crumble if there is another pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament after May.

But some MPs and grassroots independence supporters are not convinced that this will happen, and have accused Ms Sturgeon and the SNP hierarchy of being too cautious. This may be partly why a draft bill has now been published, setting out how a referendum can be held once the Covid pandemic ends if the May elections produces another pro-independence majority at Holyrood.

The Scottish government has not given a specific date, but says it wants a referendum to be held in the first half of the next parliamentary term. It says there can be "no democratic justification whatsoever" for Westminster to attempt to block it - but has not said what it will do if formal consent is not forthcoming.

Officials are reported to have discussed permanent relocation to France or the USA , but this would call in question the genuine independence of the UK deterrent.

Relocation of the UK deterrent would inevitably provoke a review of current UK policy to maintain an independent nuclear deterrent, and could see that policy changed. The choice of currency for an independent Scotland would be primarily a political choice. Since opinion polling has suggested most Scots want to keep the pound , a pact on sterling might work for an independent Scotland.

Former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has accepted that a currency union would be economically feasible. Taken in isolation, NUK would probably not opt for a sterling pact with Scotland, but as part of a package of overall advantage to NUK, it might.

A credible sterling pact underpinning a banking union could ensure continuity and stability for both countries. Financial services providers in the two countries would be licensed and regulated by the Bank of England, and the services of these businesses could be provided throughout Scotland and NUK.

Scotland could continue to use the pound sterling, while the Bank of England would continue to exercise its present role in respect of both countries, including its key role as lender of last resort. This option could be challenging if a newly independent Scotland had to move at short notice to financing a high public sector deficit without the support hitherto provided by UK central government.

This problem could be mitigated by a transition period in which UK central government support was gradually phased out. An independent Scotland would nevertheless be likely to have a larger relative national debt than NUK, and higher borrowing costs. Higher borrowing costs for Scotland might be mitigated by provision in the sterling pact for the Bank of England to purchase Scottish Government bonds as well as NUK Government bonds under its Quantitative Easing programme.

There would accordingly need to be an agreed limit on Scottish debt. Scotland could align with this limit gradually during a transition period. But to make ongoing compliance with the debt limit credible, it would have to be enforceable.

As a second independence vote becomes more likely be it legal or otherwise , any image of how the economy of an independent Scotland would look remains murky. Alongside this, what was once perhaps the great hope of an independent Scottish economy — oil and gas — is no longer a safe bet to be relied upon to see the country through any turbulence. Oil prices have been volatile at best in recent years and there is a growing global appetite for renewable energy for ethical and quota-fulfilling purposes.

Data, insights and analysis delivered to you View all newsletters By Richard Gardham Sign up to our newsletters Sign up here Where is the Scottish economy now? That is before any calculations regarding a potential independence are taken into account. Both scenarios in the report predicted that Scottish independence would cost two to three times more than Brexit alone, in terms of income per capita.

The report credits higher levels of public spending per capita largely into public services and slightly lower than average levels of tax as the main reasons for this. The report then advises that should Scotland become independent, tax rises and spending cuts would be required to offset the imbalance.

Richard Murphy, a political economist, chartered accountant and professor at City, University of London, does not believe that the GERS figures are all they seem. Is it really a coincidence that is happens to be named after a football club in Glasgow [Glasgow Rangers are nicknamed the Gers and have a strong unionist following], which is not terribly inclined towards supporters who are in favour of independence?

I very much doubt it. We know what is spent by Scotland — i. Both saw investor appetite more than double between and Despite the lack of data from a pandemic-polluted , foreign investment into Scotland has been looking promising for many years, and this could prove crucial should the country become independent.

England is by far the biggest market for Scotland, as it is for Northern Ireland and Wales. Nobody expected that or anticipated it, but almost overnight, England has come out of the equation. In the lead up to the 6 May election, Andrew Marr interviewed First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and questioned her policies regarding trade and borders. European countries, like countries everywhere, will be trying to recover from the effects of Covid in different ways and at different speeds.

That will mean that EU countries will tend to look inward, and to favour their own projects rather than going for big export drives. The EU: will Scotland opt to be in or out? The union, since its inception, has undoubtedly been a balancing act. When the bonds of union have begun to loosen at any point in time, there has always been another policy or government action that has reinforced the knot. However, three centuries of productive union have largely been forgotten about by three decades of neglect.

The Scottish independence movement is the trigger for an end to a political union rightly thought by many Scots to be no longer fit for purpose , and the SNP, for the most part, is holding the gun. This article is published under a Creative Commons License and may be republished with attribution.

Brexit will not happen on schedule. Boris Johnson needs to have a more calculated approach in the coming months to ensure a favourable outcome.